Udi Etzion, a respectable author, wrote an article to the daily Yediot Aharonot magazine, where he describes the technologies the IDF could incorporate by the year 2030, in some way or another.
Similar to the soon-to-be-established American Futures Command, the IDF has committees that plan for the coming years. The objectives for 2020 are advancing on schedule and now they are looking to what will be in the decade that follows.
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Laser systems for the protection of ground forces, 2-man "Carmel" tanks, smart helmets for the infantry, drones for medevac, unmanned ammo trucks, and a data analyst for every brigade commander. The IDF is already recruiting the AI and operates more and more autonomous vehicles in the air, land, and sea. But even in 12 years the robots will not replace the combat soldiers and pilots. The army will march on its stomach, only the food will be printed on the field, in portable 3D printers.
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Even in 2018 it sounds like science fiction, surely in 1978. But this story did happen. 40 years ago RAFAEL had worked on a secret project to develop a laser weapon system for the Sa'ar-5 ships that the navy would later acquire. The project was frozen after it was realized just how much time and resources will be needed for its completion. Only in recent years the US Navy began fielding this system.
So when we start drawing up the plan for what the IDF will acquire by 2030, we have to take into account that not every promising technology matures in the pace that is expected of it, and sometimes the priorities change because of the changing reality in the region. Take for example the presence of Russian and Iranian forces in the north and the growing tensions in Syria that have already caused the re-writing of work plans for the coming years. But even under the limitations of censorship, this is a rare view into the plans and projects that will turn 82-year old IDF into something different than it was in its 70th.
After the revolution of precise weapons in the 90's, and the information revolution of the past decade, the IDF is now facing another revolution: Autonomous fighting. In 2030 we will have the capability to identify targets, classify them, adapt the right type of weapon to them, and give the order of fire.
Once, a ground force could be attacked, identify a target, and request fire on target, and wait 2 hours until it would receive it.
We are on our way to a reality where we will have the capability to employ quick and precise firepower when a man only supervises it. Of course, there is no substitute for a commander who sets the open fire policy depending on the circumstances.
Brig. General Avtalion says "We are dealing in reality. As the prime technologist of the ground forces in the IDF I can tell you that the leap that is happening in AI and processing power could allow these capabilities even earlier. We're talking about a smart network that will be connected to all types of recon, armament, and command centers. It will allow the use of autonomous vehicles and reduce the risk to the combat soldiers. We have a long way to go before we get there, but even today the IDF is a world leader in fielding autonomous capabilities".
Brig. General Avtalion is not the only technologist that believes these autonomous capabilities are achievable within a decade. "There are 3 revolutions that will aid this happen: The leap in AI capabilities, through neuron networks and other means, the ability to create and analyze vast amounts of data, what is called Big Data, and the decreasing cost of processing power", explains Colonel A, commander of Matzpen, the software development unit of the GHQ (General Head Quarters).
"AI could better identify the centers of gravity of the enemy and advise commanders where to attack. Even today we're using AI in the West Bank area. The big challenge becomes how to professionalize and use all the digital data that the system has in every sector. In the military, there are vast amounts of data and one has to know how to extract the relevant data. The brigade commanders of 2030 won't need only a driver and communications operator, but a data analyst as well. Just like there are data analysts in the capital market today."
The move will not be sweeping: Pilots, tank crews, sailors, will continue firing on their own and with their judgement. The Tzayad system (BMS), that is already operational, will be used not only for the control of ground forces but also the control of autonomous systems. For example on borders.", explains head of planning division of the ground forces, Colonel Rami Avudraham.
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It is no surprise this is primarily about the ground forces. The understanding that the IDF has for years neglected the ground forces for the sake of the air force and intelligence, was translated by Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot to an organized program for the upgrade of the ground forces. Actions that begin today will be completed within a decade and will make the ground forces more technologically advanced than it is today.
This way, for example, by then the program to re-equip the IDF with new howitzers will be completed. The new howitzers, developed by Elbit systems, will have higher rate of fire, less crewmen, more precise firepower, and automatic datalink to location systems (GPS), weather analysis and more.
The new systems will probably be mounted on special wheeled trucks and not on tracked platforms, contrary to the current howitzers.
The army by then will have hundreds of Eitan combat vehicles that will replace some of the M113 that should have been gone a while ago.
And as was reported here earlier, the IDF will set up a new rocket force subordinated to the GHQ, that will base itself on long range rockets up to a range of 300km or more.
The innovations won't stop here. For years the IDF has dragged its feet in the procurement of defense systems. The Army resisted systems like Arrow and Iron Dome, and only started equipping its advanced Merkava 4 tanks with the Trophy APS after the 2nd Lebanon War.
Today, after they have all proven themselves, they changed approach.
In recent months a new project was initiated to develop a protection system for the ground troops, that will accompany them on the battlefield and enter service in the next decade. "We want to provide the maneuvering troops a protection system against mortars, short range rockets, and drones", explains Colonel Avudraham.
"The system will be based on a laser (Iron Beam), and on kinetic interceptors as well, a product that doesn't exist yet anywhere in the world".
Drones, activated in packs, pose a double threat: They allow terrorists to conduct surveillance and espionage on IDF troops, a capability that once only state actors possessed, and gives them the ability to strike from the air via release of grenades, or "suicide" of HE-carrying drones.
On the other hand, the IDF is set to bolster the aerial capabilities of its ground troops. Elbit's new "Skylark 2" drone, that has already assimilated in the infantry brigades and can provide commanders with 6 hours of continuous footage, will soon be joined by new UAVs, that will reduce the dependence on the air force.
We're talking about armed drones and kamikaze drones, sort of single-use UAVs that can loiter for a very long time before locating a target and detonating on it. If they won't find a target, they can be safely retrieved, refueled, and reused.
By 2030 we'll also take in new advanced drones that will assume a new niche: Communications. To permit all autonomous capabilities, the ground forces will need access to intelligence systems and communications to receive new orders. The new communications array will ensure a steady stream of up-to-date data from the front to the commands and vice versa.
However, the ability to conduct operations independently will be preserved.
Until then, the IDF will be equipped with a significant amount of Merkava 4 Barack tanks, the improved model that will enter serial production in 2020, and will include improvements to its protection, but mostly to identification of targets and their handling whilst connected to an army-wide network.
On the other hand, by 2030 the new vehicles that will replace the Merkava on the production line should mature as well: The "Carmel", an advanced tank that will be operated by 2 men only instead of 4, as well as a family of vehicles based on it.
The real question is whether the conservative IDF will be able to take the dramatic choice to end the production of the classical tank and move on to the 21st century.
Overall, after many years of conservatism and sticking to treads, we could see in the IDF more and more wheeled AFVs. The Eitan IFVs will be joined by smaller, lighter vehicles adapted to fighting in urban areas. It will allow more fighters to mobilize with proper protection. With that in mind, it is clear that by 2030 the IDF will not be able to replace the M113 entirely, such as the one that blew up in Shujaiya in Operation Protective Edge, and many of them will remain in service. But they will only serve as 2nd line vehicles, not to be used by those units who will spearhead the fight.
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The Sa'ar 6 ships are set to arrive in Israel soon, and by the start of the next decade (20's) they will enter service after being refitted with indigenous systems. They will be used to protect the offshore gas rigs.
These ships will be among the most well armed in the world: Barak 8 missiles of the IAI against super-sonic Yakhont missiles held by Syria and Hezbollah, a naval version of the Iron Dome against rockets aimed at the gas rigs, and a new offensive weapon, Israeli as well.
We are also testing the possibility of arming these ships with long range rockets. These are a naval version of IMI's long range rockets for several hundred kilometers, that will serve as a basis for the IDF's new rocket corps. The Iron Dome didn't need any significant changes to become adapted to naval platforms. If that will be the case for IMI's rockets, and there won't be a need in significant investment in their modification, then they'll make it to the navy.
The navy will also accept by 2030 at least one submarine out of the 3 on order. Although they're built by the same shipyard that built the Dolphin 1 and Dolphin 2 class submarines, they will be different.
In recent years, low frequency sonars are entering the world of submarines, with improved active detection capabilities. There is wider use of radars as well, and satellite identification of submarines has also become available. The answer to these threats is a new design of the body of the submarine, to be 'stealthier' to these means.
The navy plans to complete by 2030 the replacement of the Sa'ar 4.5 ships of the "Nirit" class. Now that the submarine and surface ship corruption case has blown up, the IDF will return to buying its ships at home. That is, build the new surface ships, call them "Sa'ar 7" if you like, in Israel Shipyards facilities in Haifa, that also built the Sa'ar 4.5 ships.
The IDF needs new heavier ships to replace the Sa'ar 4.5 that will increase in weight from 500 tons to 900 tons. A proper candidate could be the "Sa'ar 72" which are redesigned Sa'ar 4.5 ships. The Sa'ar 5 weighing 1,200 tons will be replaced by 2,000 ton Sa'ar 6 ships.
The navy will also try to convince decision makers at the GHQ to increase the number of ships in light of the new presence of not-so-friendly navies in the Mediterranean, such as the Russian fleet. In 2030 the Sa'ar 5 will be the backbone of the fleet, almost 40 years in age, and they will also need either refurbishment and modernization, or replacement.
"The system will be based on a laser (Iron Beam), and on kinetic interceptors as well, a product that doesn't exist yet anywhere in the world".
Drones, activated in packs, pose a double threat: They allow terrorists to conduct surveillance and espionage on IDF troops, a capability that once only state actors possessed, and gives them the ability to strike from the air via release of grenades, or "suicide" of HE-carrying drones.
On the other hand, the IDF is set to bolster the aerial capabilities of its ground troops. Elbit's new "Skylark 2" drone, that has already assimilated in the infantry brigades and can provide commanders with 6 hours of continuous footage, will soon be joined by new UAVs, that will reduce the dependence on the air force.
We're talking about armed drones and kamikaze drones, sort of single-use UAVs that can loiter for a very long time before locating a target and detonating on it. If they won't find a target, they can be safely retrieved, refueled, and reused.
By 2030 we'll also take in new advanced drones that will assume a new niche: Communications. To permit all autonomous capabilities, the ground forces will need access to intelligence systems and communications to receive new orders. The new communications array will ensure a steady stream of up-to-date data from the front to the commands and vice versa.
However, the ability to conduct operations independently will be preserved.
Until then, the IDF will be equipped with a significant amount of Merkava 4 Barack tanks, the improved model that will enter serial production in 2020, and will include improvements to its protection, but mostly to identification of targets and their handling whilst connected to an army-wide network.
On the other hand, by 2030 the new vehicles that will replace the Merkava on the production line should mature as well: The "Carmel", an advanced tank that will be operated by 2 men only instead of 4, as well as a family of vehicles based on it.
The real question is whether the conservative IDF will be able to take the dramatic choice to end the production of the classical tank and move on to the 21st century.
Overall, after many years of conservatism and sticking to treads, we could see in the IDF more and more wheeled AFVs. The Eitan IFVs will be joined by smaller, lighter vehicles adapted to fighting in urban areas. It will allow more fighters to mobilize with proper protection. With that in mind, it is clear that by 2030 the IDF will not be able to replace the M113 entirely, such as the one that blew up in Shujaiya in Operation Protective Edge, and many of them will remain in service. But they will only serve as 2nd line vehicles, not to be used by those units who will spearhead the fight.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Sa'ar 6 ships are set to arrive in Israel soon, and by the start of the next decade (20's) they will enter service after being refitted with indigenous systems. They will be used to protect the offshore gas rigs.
These ships will be among the most well armed in the world: Barak 8 missiles of the IAI against super-sonic Yakhont missiles held by Syria and Hezbollah, a naval version of the Iron Dome against rockets aimed at the gas rigs, and a new offensive weapon, Israeli as well.
We are also testing the possibility of arming these ships with long range rockets. These are a naval version of IMI's long range rockets for several hundred kilometers, that will serve as a basis for the IDF's new rocket corps. The Iron Dome didn't need any significant changes to become adapted to naval platforms. If that will be the case for IMI's rockets, and there won't be a need in significant investment in their modification, then they'll make it to the navy.
The navy will also accept by 2030 at least one submarine out of the 3 on order. Although they're built by the same shipyard that built the Dolphin 1 and Dolphin 2 class submarines, they will be different.
In recent years, low frequency sonars are entering the world of submarines, with improved active detection capabilities. There is wider use of radars as well, and satellite identification of submarines has also become available. The answer to these threats is a new design of the body of the submarine, to be 'stealthier' to these means.
The navy plans to complete by 2030 the replacement of the Sa'ar 4.5 ships of the "Nirit" class. Now that the submarine and surface ship corruption case has blown up, the IDF will return to buying its ships at home. That is, build the new surface ships, call them "Sa'ar 7" if you like, in Israel Shipyards facilities in Haifa, that also built the Sa'ar 4.5 ships.
The IDF needs new heavier ships to replace the Sa'ar 4.5 that will increase in weight from 500 tons to 900 tons. A proper candidate could be the "Sa'ar 72" which are redesigned Sa'ar 4.5 ships. The Sa'ar 5 weighing 1,200 tons will be replaced by 2,000 ton Sa'ar 6 ships.
The navy will also try to convince decision makers at the GHQ to increase the number of ships in light of the new presence of not-so-friendly navies in the Mediterranean, such as the Russian fleet. In 2030 the Sa'ar 5 will be the backbone of the fleet, almost 40 years in age, and they will also need either refurbishment and modernization, or replacement.
